Speaker: Daan van Ederen, Achmea Financial Risk Management
Title: Residential building vulnerability functions for winter and severe convective storms
Abstract: Economic losses from winter storms and severe convective storms impose a significant burden on society and are increasing due to exposure growth and climate change. Vulnerability functions play a key role in estimating such losses by describing the relationship between a natural hazard’s intensity and damage to the exposed asset. We provide vulnerability functions for residential buildings that, for the first time, can account for damage from multiple meteorological drivers: wind, precipitation and hail. These compound vulnerability functions are estimated using truncated beta regressions and are based on residence-level insurance claims and ultra-high-resolution meteorological observations. Comparing our vulnerability functions to conventional univariate specifications, shows that the latter underestimate the damage. Moreover, as these storms become wetter, compound vulnerability functions are required to accurately estimate their damage.